5/7/23 Prices

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Algeria picked up durum this week. Algeria don’t make their tender results public. The trade tend to speculate on both price and tonnage which are later confirmed by sellers in one way or another. The price is being assumed to be around US$386 CiF.
The seller/s are expected to supply mostly Mexican durum. The value equates to a bid of less than US$10/bu for Canadian durum. Currently Canadian durum ex farm SE Sask is closer to US$10.66/bu. Volume is estimated at 200kt, but as mentioned above, this is purely trade speculation at present.
If the price is correct, it also represents a discount of US$25/t from the last lot of Mexican durum sold in April.
Tunisia is also in for 100kt of durum this week, as well as 100kt of milling wheat. We should see the results of that tender out tonight or tomorrow. Some traders are speculating that buyers are potentially getting in now as a precaution, conditions in Canada continue to deteriorate.

Boats heading into the Black Sea to load Ukrainian wheat have basically stopped, the Black Sea Grain Initiative draws to a close on July 17th. China has been the biggest beneficiary of the Grain Corridor deal. Russia continues to claim they struck the deal in good faith that grain would go to help those most in need. To date the five poorest countries have received just 2.6% of these exports, just 700kt of the 32mt moved. Not sure how much they needed.
Russia continues to insist that unless their State Agricultural Bank is reconnected to SWIFT it will walk away from the deal.
The demise of the Black Sea corridor looks likely but yet wheat futures around the world are yet to respond. Russia had said they would not continue the deal each time it had come up for renewal or extension, this may just be a case of the boy who cried wolf. Without the deal ships may not want to go into the Black Sea region, or if they do, frieght rates and insurance, if available, would increase significantly.

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