The increase in the value of the AUD against the Euro will somewhat counter any increase in Paris rapeseed futures from last night. The Feb24 slot at Paris closed E1.25 higher. Once the impact of the firmer dollar is considered the potential gain here in domestic prices is closer to just AUD$0.85.

Fundamentally canola is being influenced by the greater oilseed market. Although there are signs for the tightening on the supply and stocks side for canola, the greater oilseed market remains pressured by large S.American soybean supply and ongoing soybean harvest in the USA.
Recent increases in sunflower oil supply from Russia also remains somewhat of a cap to certain vege oil prices.
Going forward the industry will become more focused on the developing drought in Brazil and the persistent dry weather in Argentina and the impact this will have on summer crop plantings there. Currently Brazil is penciled in for a massive soybean crop, beating last years record. If production there is reduced significantly by the continuation of the current dry weather prices will respond. Prices may not respond by as much as expected due to the current logistical issues Brazil is having trying to ship last seasons record crop. Thus ending stocks could continue to cap price moves in the mid term.

I imagine from a political perspective the announcement that Biden is heading over to Israel will create a little caution in many markets today and tomorrow. Is he just checking out the prospect of grabbing some cheap beach side real-estate, possibly firm up a few trade deals, you know, push the family business along a little. Maybe checkout the new laundromat. All cynicism aside, I’d imagine that he’d have a nice target on his back and the news of a dead US president in Israel would take a few moments for the world to digest.