Although it is early days yet the US winter wheat crop is shaping up well and currently rated the best we’ve seen since 2019. A quick look at World Ag Weather shows US 14 days rainfall across the major soft red winter wheat regions at 20mm to 70mm.
There’s also been good rainfall across much of Texas and Oklahoma, alleviating fears of yet another dry year. Further north in Kansas the eastern half is seeing plenty of rain, 30-70mm over the last fortnight. The west of Kansas remains dry though, not entirely unusual for western Kansas but the anomaly is now down to as little as 20% to 40% of normal rainfall for some parts of far west Kansas.

Ukraine has sown around 3.7mha of their projected 4.3mha of winter wheat. The sowing of rapeseed is all but complete with 1.1mha of the projected 1.2mha in the ground. Black Sea exports, although slow, continue to flow with the Ukraine navy escorting in some Black Sea vessels.

The November USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report is due out tonight. The punters are not predicting any big moves in wheat. There’s some consensus that wheat ending stocks maybe reduced a little. This could be grasping at straws for a little positive news though, as many major exporters are not hitting their current estimates on export volume.

Algeria was said to have picked up 180kt of milling wheat yesterday. Algeria do not make their tender results public but there is trade speculation that the tonnage was mostly Black Sea wheat at a value of US$266 C&F. On the back of an envelope this is equal to roughly AUD$270 XF LPP, they can have it.