Winnipeg rapeseed futures ran it’s own race last night, breaking away from Paris rapeseed futures and showing a lot more strength than a lack luster Chicago soybean contract. Nearby Winnipeg canola rallied C$14.00 per tonne. The move unexpected by many, tends to plot Canadian canola values against the fundamental indicators.
Local canola market here on the east coast of Australia have generally tracked more closely to the Paris market, thus the move at Winnipeg is probably more likely to be reflected as a decrease in basis rather than reflected as a rise in cash prices here. Paris rapeseed futures were down E3.00 in the Feb24 slot. Taking the change in currency into account this would roughly be equivalent to a move here of about AUD$2.85 lower.

The AUD is now back to 63.57 US cents, almost as low as it was prior to the RBA interest rate announcement earlier this week. One can only speculate about the policies that would need to be implemented to halt inflation in Australia now. The flow of imported money appears to be the real issue and the impact this money is having could even lead one to assume further interest rate hikes are plausible. If policies are enacted to decrease inflation, than one may even see the AUD fall further. Which way the government is likely to turn is a guess, but recent performance indicates it will not be the direction that assists the general population.
Combine this speculation on the AUD with the comparable softening of local wheat prices and we could easily see even NNSW values fall to export parity, chart attached. This seems crazy from the outside when in practical terms the NNSW / SQLD market is more likely to have a 500kt shortfall to demand from the normal catchment than an exportable excess. One might even come to the conclusion that current wheat prices are cheap.