US wheat futures were sharply lower in overnight trade. Generally cash wheat values from major exporting nations did not follow the Chicago SRWW futures contract lower dollar for dollar. HRW out of the US PNW was valued at US$248.38 roughly AUD$6.74 lower as opposed to the move in SRWW futures which is closer to AUD$10.94 when taking day to day currency moves into account, which are minimal.
US wheat and corn futures continue to come under pressure from outside markets, mainly soybeans. The northern hemisphere wheat crop, which is generally dormant or in the case of spring wheat un-sown this time of year, has had pretty much a dream winter to date. Some fields may see some winter kill due to frozen rain on fields with little or now snow cover, but generally speaking the northern hemisphere is shaping up very well for wheat production in 2024. The soybean side of the equation is basically anything but bullish. Rain in S.America, poor exports from the USA, little support from crude oil values. The only thing trying to push oil seeds higher is palm, and even that is struggling. The funds, as they’ve done in wheat and corn, continue to build a net short in Chicago soybeans. Thus dragging down both Winnipeg canola futures and Paris rapeseed futures. Recently we’ve seen some reductions in Brazilian soybean production due to drought during the first half of their season in Mato Grosso, but most punters are still happy to project Brazilian soybean production at, or above, 155mt, still by any benchmark a massive crop.

Algeria are in for 40kt of durum wheat by tender that closes on Wednesday. This may help guide the market a little for those left with 2023-34 durum left unsold. With Russian and Turkish durum unlikely to be included in this tender the main seller is expected to be Canada. Overnight 1CWAD13 durum values ex farm SE Saskatchewan moved higher, up about C$4.13/t nearby. Roughly converted to XF LPP using Italy as a home that = AUD$500+.