The US market was open again after a long weekend. The punters took the path of least analysis and pressure was again exerted on the market from the WASDE report last week, and prices were generally softer across the board. The one real surprise, to me anyway, was Chicago soybeans which managed to close a few cents a bushel in the green. Outer month beans were lower, but the higher close nearby did roll through to better values at both Winnipeg and Paris for canola and rapeseed.

It’s possible the largest influence on the US market was not fundamentally from grain production outlooks, but from a stronger US dollar. The year ahead, according to many currency analyst, will incorporate rate cuts across the major economies. The timing of these cuts, or the delay of these cuts, from country to country will have an impact on the currency in each of these regions as the expected reduction in rates ripple around the world.
China is again in the news, some punters call it the depression you have when you’re not having a depression, a Clayton’s depression if you will. If this is indeed to case, as the economic policies of China are implying one thing and the leaders are saying another (not unusual). Than this is likely to have a major impact on Australia in 2024. If we see China becoming weaker as our own economy is already suffering from an Albonomic hemorrhage, we could see a significantly weaker AUD as we move through 2024. But hey, after the last 5 years getting a prediction right is a bit like pulling one of one hundred forecasts written on pieces of paper out of a hat isn’t it.

Tunisia issued another tender for durum and soft wheat, results should be out by Thursday.