19/1/24 Prices

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Chinese imports for the year January 2023 to December 2023 are interesting. Wheat imports were estimated at 12.1mt, +22% year on year. Corn imports were up 32% year on year to 27.13mt, that’s interesting given the massive feed wheat crop they harvested. Barley imports were also much higher year on year, 97% higher, to 11.33mt. Sorghum was disappointing, a decline of 49% year on year to just 5.21mt, although imports from the US in December did jump considerably to 350kt, an increase of 235% from last December.
Chinese sorghum production is estimated at 3mt, that’s the same as last year, and the year before that. Yield estimates are interesting too, this year it was 4.8t/ha, last year 4.8t/ha, 2021-22, you guessed it 4.8t/ha, before that 4.7t/ha, then 4.9t/ha, then 4.7t/ha……. I’m not making this up. That’s a 200kg/ha variance per year on official data from 2016-17. 2023 was generally, according to the rainfall map, not a bad year for sorghum regions both in north China and in Sichuan and Guizhou provinces in the south central region. Almost 70% of the Chinese sorghum crop is grown in the north. 33% in Jilin province that borders N.Korea. China sow sorghum during Feb / March / April, and have a harvest window in July / August. This would translate to a peak demand period very much aligned to the same time that Australian sorghum is being harvested, April / May / June.
US sorghum production was estimated at 8.07mt in the January WASDE, back roughly 170kt from the December estimate. The US annual export estimate was increased from 5.58mt in the December report, to 5.824mt in January. Year on year US sorghum production increased from 4.77mt to 8.07mt but is still well below the 2021/22 crop of 11.38mt. World sorghum production for 2023/24 is expected to rise 4.66mt from last year to 60.01mt, just a smidge lower than world production in 2021/22.
After lower than average Chinese sorghum imports for 2023, but a large increase in December, 540kt, it tends to signal demand there will increase soon.

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