21/2/24 Prices

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The wheat market is trying to analyse why Chicago soft red winter wheat futures bounced 20c/bu last night. The Dec 24 contract now back over 600c/bu. The number of 20c moves one sees at Chicago these days versus just 10 years ago is impressive. In 2014 there we 9 sessions on the nearby contract that resulted in a close greater than or equal to 20c/bu, 2015 – 6, 2016 – 0, 2017 – 4, 2018 – 5, 2019 – 6, 2020 – 8, 2021 – 18, 2022 – 49, 2023 – 16, 2024 – 1.
Time will tell if this was simply a “technical Tuesday”, dead cat bounce for Chicago wheat, or the start of something bigger, potentially the start of the unwinding of the massive fund shorts across most grains, that’d be nice.
It’s not unusual for the US futures market to trend upwards during their spring planting window. Encouraging acres and giving the trade the opportunity to sell high before their harvest and prices trend lower again given an average year. This time of year isn’t nicknamed the silly season for nothing.

The focus will be on how autumn sown crops in the northern hemisphere come out of dormancy and how the spring sown crops start. Soybean and oilseeds is a little different from the cereals as the S.American crop is starting to be harvested now, thus we will see that market initially impacted by the final yield estimate for S.American soybeans over the next 2 months as well as the sowing season for US soybeans and EU / Canadian canola later in the spring.

As for wheat the focus will be on Chinese production and imports and weather in the US, Europe and the Black Sea states and how much wheat Australia and Argentina sow. Currently the outlook for wheat in Europe is mixed. Potentially too much rain in northern Europe and England while there’s been too little in the durum producing regions of Italy and N.Africa. The 7 day forecast for Europe doesn’t show it getting drier any time soon. The Black Sea states have also been wet, the prediction of drier weather in the week ahead is not bad. Conditions remain a little dry across the US central corn belt and a little dry across Kansas.

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