20/3/24 Prices
US wheat futures continued higher on technical trading, short covering. Fundamental support was said to be garnered from the recent Russian attacks of Ukraine port facilities. Values out of the Pacific Northwest of the USA followed the futures markets higher, hard red winter wheat and spring wheat values, both US and Canadian, pushed higher. White wheat values out of the PNW remained unchanged.
Conditions across the US central hard red winter wheat states have remained very dry over the last 14 days. Conditions across both the US spring wheat states and the Canadian durum prairies are also dry.
The forecast for the US looks promising though. 7 day estimates for the US central corn belt, including much of the spring wheat belt, call for rainfall of 25-50mm. Western Kansas may miss much of this but the driest parts of the HRWW belt around the Texas / Oklahoma panhandle should see some good falls. The Canadian Prairies look likely to miss this rainfall event too, possibly exacerbating the current dry conditions. It is still very cold there though.
Algeria was said to have bought 100-150kt of durum wheat by tender overnight. Algerian tender business is not made public, so as yet there are no trade estimates on values or suppliers but it was expected that Algeria were hoping to see new crop Mexican durum enter the market to temper prices from Canada.
Paris milling wheat futures were also higher, up E3.00 on the nearby and the December 2024 slot. Paris rapeseed was firmer, as was Winnipeg canola both contracts breaking away from a lower close on the nearby Chicago soybean contract. Many analyst tend to agree that the strength in Paris wheat futures is being driven by the same technical trade as at Chicago. Both exchanges have seen huge wheat shorts built by the funds over the last few months. It appears time to take some profit and clear some of these shorts.