4/4/24 Prices

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US wheat, corn and soybean futures were back in the black last night. Hard red winter wheat futures at Chicago the clear winner. As a turn around from the last few session HRWW futures managed to close 17.25c/bu higher (AUD$9.65/t). A mixture of short covering and fundamentals pushed the market to claw back some of the recent losses. Wheat mainly found technical support. The fundamental support coming from spillover strength due possible wet weather delays in corn sowing, tis the silly season.
Much of central Kansas has been dry, receiving just 40% to 60% of normal rainfall over the last 14 days. With the forecast predicting 10-30mm of rain across central Kansas over the next 7 days, one would normally consider this a little bearish if anything. The spring wheat belt in the US and Canada is likely to miss this change in weather. One would have probably expected to see more strength in MGEX than Chicago wheat, but the funds play where the volume is and at the moment that’s at Chicago and they are massively short and probably a little nervous.
At Paris, milling wheat futures were mixed, closing either side of unchanged, the nearby shedding less than a dollar. Rapeseed futures at Paris were again higher. Closing up E2.50 on the nearby and up E0.75 in the Feb25 slot.

Tunisia are in for 50kt of soft milling wheat and 50kt of durum wheat. This is an optional origin tender for late April / May supply. We should see the results of this tender tomorrow.
Morocco has confirmed they could be in the market for as much as 5mt of wheat in 2024 due to drought cutting local production.

The stronger AUD and weaker cash values for sorghum out of the Gulf saw conversions to AUD / tonne shedding around AUD$3.40 overnight.

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