The US FED done exactly what the majority of punters had expected them to do, they cut rates by 50pts, the first fall in rates since they printed all that money back in Covid. The next question is, will the local RBA follow their lead on the 24th. Most punters appear to suggesting it’s a given. The RBA would basically be committing Aussies to economic suicide if they didn’t, but hey, after the last few years I don’t put anything past the printers these days. The US, according to Powell, is having some issues on the Labor supply side (immigration), significant increases not matching the job creation rate, this has influenced the FED’s move, might we also be experiencing a similar increase on the supply side.

Enough of that side of the market, although that appears to be 100% of the focus this morning. Wheat was interesting, well not really, but I have to say it is probably the first time I’ve seen this little amount of volatility in Chicago SRWW futures (table below). This should make for a flat day.
Looking at cash wheat values around the globe we see mostly stable prices. US spring wheat out of the Pacific Northwest probably one of the more volatile grades and it has only moved the equivalent of -AUD$2.95 compared to yesterdays conversion. PNW values were generally lower, HRWW and Canadian spring wheat also slipped a little. US Club White wheat was lower, just 20c/t, more a function of currency than market movement in price.
In AUD per tonne French milling wheat FOB Rouen was the hardest hit of the EU wheat, down in AUD/t from yesterday’s conversion by roughly AUD$2.26. Paris milling wheat futures slipped just €0.75/t in the Dec 24 slot, at today’s EURO/AUD rate that’s about -AUD$1.23/t.
The traders at Winnipeg appear to have forgotten about the Chinese canola ban for now, Winnipeg canola futures rallied C$8.30 per tonne in the Jan 25 slot. Paris rapeseed appeared happy to follow, closing €3.00/t higher in the Feb 25 slot. Not a lot of this move is making fundamental sense at the moment. StatsCan increased their old crop canola production estimate from 18.33mt to 19.19mt this week and their new crop also increased 870kt to 19.5mt.