The weekly USDA US crop progress report was out last night. It’s all about corn at the moment. Last weeks ProFarmer crop tour yield estimates came in a bunch lower than the current USDA national yield estimate. The USDA already livened the corn market up with lower than expected sown area in the August WASDE. If the crop tour yield estimates are supported in the Sept WASDE report, then this run up in US corn futures may not be over just yet.
Last nights crop condition rating for US corn was back 3pts week on week, now at 43/14 = 57% good to excellent. Around 6% of the US corn crop is rated as mature, 45% dented, and 86% in the dough stage. Not an ideal growth stage to see a slip in condition.
Looking at the recent rain across the US central corn belt from WorldAgWeather, the heavier falls were mostly across the eastern parts, the heavy rain generally missing Iowa. The 14 day anomaly chart tells the story better, Nebraska, east to Ohio saw as much as 150% to 600% of normal average rainfall during that time. Storms did cause some damage, but also produced heavy rain in places. According to the ProFarmer tour results, the rain may not fix the damage that has been done by earlier hot, dry conditions. I can’t help but think the tour results may be leaning a little to the low side, they do have a record of being slightly grower friendly, but still yields do not appear likely to be as good as what the USDA numbers were in the August WASDE.
We are not talking an all failure of the US crop, like we are seeing in the French corn crop, but the fundamentals are pointing towards lower yields in next months WASDE.
The USDA also reduced sorghum ratings again, from 28% G/E last week, which was bad, to 27% G/E this week. Kansas is rated at 28% G/E. Around 14% of the US sorghum crop is harvest, the bulk of that in Texas, which is now at 55% complete. Around 3% of the Kansas crop is mature, 28% coloured and 72% in head. The SE parts of Kansas remained very dry over the last couple of weeks, receiving less than 10mm in many locations. Temperatures there have been roughly average to 2C above average. Conditions across the Chinese sorghum belt have been mostly average, 20-50mm of rain and avg temps.