We get the first official USDA weekly crop progress report on the 7th. The current winter wheat crop rating across Kansas improved 1pt this week, the Good / Excellent rating now pegged at 49% G/E. The Oklahoma rating fell sharply to 37% G/E, a week on week change of -9pts. Texas at just 31% G/E is not great but a week on week improvement over last weeks 28% estimate.
US weather is expected to turn cold again, with 12″ – 24″ of snow possible across much of the spring wheat region and as far south as Nebraska. The change is not expected to bring significant rainfall to Kansas but may see some good falls across Oklahoma and much of Texas. Falls are expected to be very heavy across the SE where some models show 7 day totals for SE Missouri and nearby states could add up to as much as 250mm. By the weekend temperatures may become cold across the HRWW belt. Forecast to slip as much as 4C to 6C below average. This may see central Kansas temperatures fall as low as -3C on Sunday night and possibly colder further west towards Hays were crops are already drought stressed.
Wheat crop growth stages across Kansas vary but the majority of the crop is expected to be jointing or early boot stage. Although not ideal, temperatures as low as -4C may not pose a huge risk to the crop. If conditions were to become colder, below say -7C, than the risk of stem frost becomes much greater and yield losses would be more likely. This change over the weekend needs to be watched.
Conditions in Russia have improved somewhat. There’s been some decent rainfall across much of the black soil regions and the central wheat regions closer to the Ukraine border. The 7 days forecast also looks good for some follow up rainfall across these regions. Temperatures have generally been a little above average and the forecast tends to suggest this will continue in the short term.
Stronger Chicago soybean futures helped both Winnipeg canola and Paris rapeseed futures close higher. Conditions across France and Germany remain very dry with little rainfall in the forecast. Temperatures remain about average, but the 14 day rainfall anomaly for France and Germany is just 20%-40%.