As one market wire states this morning, “the bears are in control today”. US futures were softer across the board bar HRWW futures, which appears to be torn between following the rest of the grains lower and the weather forecast.
The forecast for the USA still looks a little mixed, continued dry conditions across the majority of the hard red winter wheat belt potentially combining with some colder conditions over the weekend. Along the southern parts and east of the Mississippi is another story. With rainfall models predicting very heavy rain is possible across the central / southern mid west, and the central south east, with some predictions calling for falls of 250mm+. The impact this will have on agriculture is probably mixed but generally this is too early for an impact on summer crops grown in that area, mainly cotton with some corn and soybeans, and too far away from the major winter wheat regions to be a huge issue, or benefit.
The main weather driver, for wheat, appears to be the threat of some cold conditions pushing down into Kansas and Oklahoma. Topeka KS could see the mercury slip down to -2C on Monday morning. With the crop jointing / booting this shouldn’t pose a huge threat but if there are advanced crops, which is possible due to the recent dry weather, they may see some flowering issues. Further south, Wichita KS, frosts are not expected. Salina KS, central north, could see three frosty mornings in a row, but none under -2C.
Cash values out of the US Pacific Northwest were a little firmer for white wheat and hard red winter wheat. The day to day conversion for these grades increased by roughly AUD$2.00 to AUD$2.50 / tonne. Spring wheat values were generally lower, the day to day conversion comparison slipping roughly AUD$2.00 to AUD$4.00 for US and Canadian spring wheat FOB values.
The US announced a 10% tariff on all Australian imports to the USA. Trump has said they will take a closer look at Australian beef, possibly increasing the tariff further for beef imports. Currently Australia can export 448.2kt of beef tariff free pa. The USA currently accounts for 29% of Aussie beef exports.