The US weekly crop progress report was out overnight. Corn planting advanced to 25% sown versus the 5 year average of 19%. Soybean sowing is also advancing well with 23% in the ground versus the 5 year average of 12%.
Sorghum sowing is moving north, Kansas sowing 4% of their projected area last week. This takes US sowing progress for sorghum to 20% complete, 1pt over the 5 year average. Spring wheat sowing advanced to 19% done, well behind last years pace of 28% by now, and also lower than the 5 year average of 22%.
The winter wheat crop condition rating was pegged at 30% G/E, unchanged week on week. The Kansas crop was rated 23% G/E, down 1pt week on week. The area rated Poor / Very Poor in Kansas was 41% last week, that stayed the same but poorly rated fell 1pt but very poor picked up that point.
15% of the Kansas crop is now in head, that’s well above the 5 year average of 2% for now, and also ahead of last years 5%. This is indicating that the dry conditions are forcing the crop to advance.
The last 7 days were dry for western Kansas and the Panhandle. Should also mention N.Dakota was also dry. The next 7 days show ND remaining dry, but potentially some showers across the far west of Kansas and southern and central Oklahoma closer to the weekend. Time is starting to run out for the western Kansas HRWW crop. I’ve seen early May rain turn things around pretty quickly, but the odds are a little against it given the increasing percentage now in head.

70% of the US winter wheat belt is now in drought. The same level as this time on 2022. On this day in 2022 the AUD was 71.23USc and the bid for old crop APW on the track was $410, new crop was $435. Dec 2022 Chicago SRWW futures were 1074c/bu, and marching higher. The Russian / Ukraine war was the main driver. Futures rallied hard before a major correction in May seeing futures decline all the way into December where they bottomed around 700c/bu. Global S&Ds were better than today but volatility around Black Sea availability kept prices high.