Corn and soybean futures at Chicago closed in the green. Some wires already announcing the start of the new rally, obviously those on that side of the fence have a book to talk this early in the “recovery”.
Both Winnipeg canola and Paris rapeseed futures moved higher. Cash canola bids XF SE Saskatchewan were also higher, a September lift up CAD$11.00 / tonne. Looking at C&F values into the EU we see that Canadian product is valued roughly the same as west coast Aussie product once trade margins are considered, if anything the Canadian product may be a little more expensive. Canola C&F China is similar, Canadian product could be a little cheaper than the Aussie product there.
Australian feed barley still appears to be the cheapest option for the Chinese importer by roughly US$5.00 per tonne. On the back of an envelope the current values that WA barley are seeing C&F China would convert roughly to something close to AUD$275 XF LPP for feed barley. That’s a fair bit cheaper than current grower bids on the plains, confirming there is still a significant drought premium for the old crop here in NNSW.

The million dollar question is where will international wheat values go in the mid term. There’s a lot of time to pass before we make more than guesses, but as the winter wheat crops in the EU, USA and Russia all start to turn in June, we will get much closer to a logical guess. At this stage the US wheat crop is small, the Russian crop is likely to be big and the EU crop is mixed. EU spring was not favorable but the official condition rating continues to suggest the crop is in much better shape than one might expect. Either wheat doesn’t need as much rain as it once did, or we’ll see some adjustments to yields in the EU in the near term. We have N.American, Russian, Kazakh spring wheat to be sown and the Aussie and Argie area’s to be confirmed. Given what we already know, and this is backed up by the USDA WASDE data in May, is that wheat supply is likely to contract in 2026-27, this usually results in higher prices.