Sometimes I feel like the more you learn the less you know. The interrelationships between cash grain, futures, currency, outside markets and politics, and from now on AI will be have to be thrown in the mix too, can all become grey at times. The politicians are still trying to figure out how to handle the internet, the odds they will ever get a full grasp on the use of AI is not in their favour.
I’m yet to embrace the AI world. My wife Jodi, loves it. She’s currently doing a degree that requires presentations. Anyone that’s ever prepared a decent sized presentation understands how long it takes to put those together. The AI functions currently available allow her to concentrate on content, and the AI does the prezzo prep, very time efficient.
Unlike the grain game, Jodi’s degree is basically testing her on what she has been taught, not trying to predict what is going to happen. Mind you the phycology degree she is doing may be useful in predicting what certain types of people, like psychopaths, may do.
I asked AI to tell me what Australian wheat will be worth in December 2026, it came up with a range of $700 to $960 / tonne. It claimed a couple of proviso’s, northern hemisphere weather, the usual fundamental influences, but I think we all know that this is not very likely to happen. I’d be happy to see canola trade that price range let alone wheat.
Trying to pick the price of wheat for December in March is like throwing a dart at a dart board, while the dart board is being spun in circles. There are simply too many variables. I use a lot on analogue models to forecast. Some of the data includes price ranges considering past years with similar global carry in, current weather forecasts, global S&D, local weather, local carry over. The one variable that can’t be factored is political influence. When the markets are humming along on their own, with the usual corruption of fund managers and inside traders, it’s not easy but it’s kind of predictable. Throw in some nut jobs starting wars around the world and the impact this has can not be underestimated. The costs of the logistics of world trade has to be paid for by someone.