The French wheat crop rating is starting to reflect reality now. Weeks of below average rainfall and then a heatwave, moved southern fields into harvest quickly and clipped the yield potential of wheat in the north. Week on week the condition rating for French soft wheat fell 6pts to 68% Good to Excellent. Considering almost a third of the French wheat crop has been harvested this is a large adjustment.
Spring sown corn in France was also hit hard by the heat and dry. The percentage of the French corn crop rated G/E fell sharply week on week, 61% of the French corn crop is now at the top end of the rating. This isn’t a horror story yet, but it’s well below the 5 year average, which is closer 83%.
The French rating of 61% G/E for corn compares to the US rating of 67% G/E, which was left unchanged week on week.
The heatwave in the US isn’t that unusual for …well… the middle of summer, that’s usually when you get them. Leading up to the hot conditions the US corn belt had also seen quiet good rainfall. There was little drought stress in most of the corn belt. Some parts were dry, but generally it wasn’t too bad. This has lead to some analyst to call this rally over cooked already. That may be a little on the early side, considering the leg up the market will get from the EU problems, but up side will certainly spook a few of the fund managers still holding shorts in grains.
The US soybean G/E rating fell one point. Kind of makes you wonder where they pulled a 47.75c/bu (AUD$25.22/t) rally out of last night. China appeared on the US weekly export inspections docket, taking 268kt of the 528kt loaded on boats. That’s not a huge total, and bean exports sit 18.2% below the same period last year. Reuters reported US sales of up to 5 more boat loads of US beans to China.
US sorghum sowing is winding up, nationally 97% sown, Kansas at 94% done, 5% of the Kansas crop is in head, 68% of the Texas crop is in head. Their sorghum crop is rated 50% G/E, not great, and 17points behind last years crop. The spring wheat G/E rating in the states is back 2pts to 57%.
Saudi Arabia picked up 661kt of wheat. The price was either side of US$270 C&F, roughly equivalent to about AUD$250ish XF LPP, so probably Black Sea.