No one really thinks of Brazil as being a mover or shaker in world of wheat. They produce roughly 6mt of wheat annually but they consumer around 12.3mt. This makes them a significant importer of wheat, around 7.5mt is projected for the 2026-27 season.
The bulk of imports traditionally come from their southern neighbor Argentina. With Argentina producing a large crop of 27.89mt last year, one would expect supply to not be a problem in 2026-27.
The problem with producing wheat in Brazil is that it often subjected to heavy rain during grain fill and harvest and much of the crop is grower in a small area in the far SE of the country. Who remembers the pictures of headers floating down the river from a year or two back. Well, it’s potentially shaping up to be a replay this year. Heavy rain has again fallen across the major wheat districts of Brazil and harvest is expected to commence in about 3-4 weeks. We’ll get a better idea of the damage in a month or two. The flip side is that any increase in Brazilian imports will help reduce the carry over from the large Argie crop.
Currently the USDA has Argie carry in at 3.8mt, reducing it from 4.13mt in their July estimates. Argie exports were unchanged at 15mt and Brazilian imports were increased from 7.2 to 7.5mt in the August report. There is now a good chance these numbers will be adjusted in the September report. Further reducing carry out for Argentina will see further support for wheat values, as ending stocks from the major exporters, bar Russia and Ukraine, continue to fall. Will it be enough to counter the slow exports out of the Black Sea, time will tell but probably not, but increases in demand are always welcome.

Overnight the International Grains Council report showed world wheat production back 4mt on their July estimate, to 817mt. World usage was reduced 2mt, big call given the conditions in Europe, and ending stocks were cut by 4mt to 275mt, still too high.
US weekly wheat export sales came in at 394kt, towards the higher end of expectations but not surprisingly so. Corn and bean sales were as expected.