The USDA weekly crop progress report has the corn crop 33% harvested, 6pts slower than the 5 year average. The condition rating for corn was up 2pts in the good to excellent range, 44/12- 56% G/E.
In 2019 the USDA corn crop reporting closed off with a G/E rating of 56%. That year the crop yielded 167.5bu/ac, or 10.51t/ha in modern terms. In last weeks WASDE, the USDA were working of an average yield of 181.2bu/ac (11.37t/ha). That’s 8.2% better than the last time the crop was rated at 56% G/E. Should we consider the area differences, in 2019 79.833mac harvested, this year the area harvested is expected to be 88.5mac, an increase of 10.8%.
The G/E rating does seem to be conflicting with the projected yield, from a raw data perspective.
Moving through the weekly crop progress report we come to the sorghum data. Sorghum values FOB US really had no option but to follow corn values lower this week. The average FOB Gulf number fell from a short term high of US$258.50 to US$251 during the week. Well below the 3 month high of US$274 set back on the 22nd of September.
The Kansas sorghum crop is now 23% harvested, behind the 5 year average pace of 40%, due to rain delays. The crop rating remains terrible, just 26% of the US sorghum crop is rated G/E, and 36% is rated poor to very poor. The G/E rating in Kansas is just 24%, and 40% of the crop there so rated P/VP. This isn’t a great sorghum crop, and to be fair, considering what weather it has been through it may well have some issues to deal with. Especially for the more discerning Chinese buyer looking to make that quality drink known as Baiju.
Harvest conditions across the Chinese sorghum belt have generally been favourable. A little wet in the far north, but probably perfect across the southern parts of the main producing regions in the north. With the rising cost of fuel, it will be interesting to see if Chinese import demand is reduced. In the past this has been a major consideration for imports. Their internal costs to bring sorghum to the Baiju maker were often more expensive than importing sorghum.