The early rally in the US dollar opened the gate for profit taking, the US dollar slipped quickly closing the session at a multi week low against a number of currencies. Talk of the US Fed reducing bond purchases later in the year seemed to be the key to it all. High inflation is generally the counter argument.
One may have though that news of another monthly retraction in Australian retail sales may have weakened the AUD but it was all about the US dollar. Aussie retail sales were back 1.8% in June and 2.7% lower again in July, a sharper fall than expected. I can’t wait until they slip over in the blood on the floor from the August numbers in a couple of weeks.

In US grain futures we see support for corn, profit taking in soft and hard winter wheat, while spring wheat futures post more gains. Spring wheat values in SE Saskatchewan were generally a couple of dollars firmer while durum there was back less than a dollar. Cash bids for canola ex farm SE Sask were lower, in line with the futures market. A December lift averaged a cash price of C$877.44, down C$5.19.

If we were to take this canola price in SE Sask and convert it to a FOB price Europe and then use that price to determine and equivalent cash price at an Aussie port we come up with a number of AUD$1015. This calculation remains a difficult one though, due to the big swings in Canadian basis to FOB at present.
The main influence on next week’s market will come from the Stats Canada report. Durum, wheat and canola production forecast is crucial.