8/9/22 Prices

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Wheat futures at Chicago and Paris moved higher on the back of talk that the Black Sea grain corridor may be closed after the agreement termination date is reached in late November. All three US wheat grades had double digit gains in the December contract. Paris milling wheat also pushed ten euro’s higher in the December slot.
Is this talk rhetoric, a threat, or a simple observation that the corridor was negotiated with an expiry date. Time will tell, but we all know that Putin is not afraid to act on his words, just ask those reliant on Russian gas in Germany. With Russia harvesting a record wheat crop you can’t help but think that this is in Russia’s best interest as well. Eliminating your major Black Sea competitor makes selling your wheat a little easier. Exporters in Romania must be finding it harder to sleep at night. News that Russia is happy to be paid for commodities sold to China in either rubles or yuan was also a market mover.

Chicago corn and soybean futures struggled, both shedding value due to some profit taking late in the session. Possibly money flowing back into Wall St, which saw a 445-point gain on the day. Cash prices for US corn, basis values, were mixed across the US, generally higher basis in the west where yields are not expected to be much good and lower basis across the central and eastern corn belt, traders not happy to follow futures higher.
There is a lot of speculation on what number the USDA will use in the WASDE on the 12th for US corn yields. Many punters think the final yield will fall below 170bu/ac, but most agree we may not see that in a USDA report until October or November.

Paris rapeseed futures were higher by the close while ICE canola and CME soybeans were both lower. Big bean sales volume out of S.America.

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