Lots of green across the screen this morning. US wheat, corn and soybean futures all closing higher bar nearby corn. Nearby corn is at a huge premium to the new crop so we might expect to see some convergence in the July slot between now and expiry.
Chicago soft red winter wheat lead the wheats higher, HRW not far behind. Spring wheat done well to follow considering the great outlook for rain across the US spring wheat belt and the Canadian Prairies. Canola and rapeseed futures followed the lead from the Chicago soybean market. The move in Paris rapeseed potentially only worth about AUD$1.85 on the new crop today, thanks to a higher AUD against the Euro.

The seven-day forecast for the US central corn belt remains dry. This is in stark contrast to the spring wheat belt and the HRWW belt in the US. Much of the western and northern Great Plains are expected to see heavy rain over the next week. Corn traders are watching the developments in the “I” states closely. The central corn belt is responsible for almost 40% of the US corn crop. Further west, Nebraska, another state that accounts for roughly 15% of the US corn crop, has had a mixed start to the corn season. Rainfall over the next week should be pretty good across Nebraska but keep an eye on it as the start was much drier than desired by many. If the rains do not eventuate the G/E rating there may too start to fall.
The rain across the HRW belt is a bit of a worry too, a lot of that crop is in head. The later crops may benefit a little, but the earlier crops may start to see some issues if the weather persists.
The mainstream is starting to pick up on the issues arising from the heavy rain in China. When 20mt of milling wheat is downgraded this is a major concern. China has been importing milling wheat this year. I’m not saying they might be lying about their stocks but missing 20mt could hurt them.