The last 14 days has seen little rain fall across northern Europe. France, Germany, and Poland have seen nothing more than light scattered showers. The seven-day forecast for the same region is also dry. This would make it 3 weeks without a decent fall of rain for the major wheat producing regions of western Europe.
French soft wheat ratings declined 2% week on week. That’s not a huge amount, it’s still rated 91% G/E, but if the dry weather producers a further decline next week we may start to see a few of the milling wheat shorts at Paris get a little nervous. The current rating is still well above the rating for this time last year which was just 67% G/E. The soft wheat crop is only a little behind average in development, 94% in head. A crucial stage for rain.

Spain is finally seeing some rain with 20-50mm of rain falling across the driest parts of the country over the last 7 days and 10-20mm forecast for the coming week. Heavy rain is also possible across the south of France and the major durum producing regions of Italy.  With much of the durum wheat now heavily downgraded in Sicily and some parts of Italy, further rain will only see the quality problem worsen there. Rain may also now be jeopardising durum quality in southern France.

The outlook for the US central corn belt remains poor. Chicago futures rallied on the back of the weather forecast for the USA and Europe as well as the smaller corn crop coming in from Argentina. Flooding across parts of western Texas and the Panhandle are also a problem. Some locations in that region have seen over 9″ rain in the last two weeks.