29/11/23 Prices
Russian FOB wheat values have increased a little. Domestic demand in Russia is also picking up. FOB values are mostly being pushed by stormy weather making ship loading difficult across many major Black Sea ports. Internal infrastructure has also seen some storm damage, road and rail to some ports are being reported as damaged. The main region to be affected appears to be towards the SE of the Azov Sea.
Still in the Black Sea region, heavy snow fall and strong winds has also closed the Romanian port of Constanta temporarily. Constanta has seen a massive increase in through put over the last 12 months as Ukraine grain exports flow through. The snow storm also limited access to Danube ports on the Ukraine side. Both road and rail deliveries to ports were delayed as was access by water.
US soybean futures closed higher. Some reports say on the back of weather in Brazil. A quick look at World Ag Weather doesn’t exactly back up their concerns, but yes, recent poor weather in Brazil and Argentina could see their soybean crops limited to just being massive. Chicago futures for beans closed 16.75c/bu higher. Cash bids across the US interior were mixed, basis in some location falling as much as 10c/bu, not following futures cent for cent. Funds managed to trim their net long position during the week, every rally an opportunity to trim it appears.
The strength in Chicago soybean futures did spill over into the canola and rapeseed contracts and Winnipeg and Paris, both closing with gains. Paris rapeseed was up E3.25 on the nearby, roughly converting to a day to day change here of AUD$3.90. The stronger AUD capping that move somewhat.
US wheat futures for all three major grades closed higher, a welcome technical bounce. The funds are still very much net short wheat. EU wheat exports remain sluggish but still focused mainly on N.African homes. StatsCanada have a report out on Monday, most punters expect a higher wheat number.