US corn, wheat and soybean futures were clear winners in last nights futures markets. Videos of headers floating down rivers and cities being flooded in S.America are never bearish. Historical flooding across SE Brazil has the punters trying to quantify losses to the Brazilian soybean crop. Most are coming up with a number somewhere between 1.5mt and 2mt. Not hugely bullish oilseeds, but definitely not bearish.
The strength in Chicago soybeans rolled through to both the Paris rapeseed futures and Winnipeg canola, both closing with significant gains. The AUD is up about 0.21%, not a lot but it will take a little of shine off the rally in futures. The move in nearby Paris rapeseed futures, when taking the daily move in the AUD / Euro into account, is roughly +AUD$17.05, the Winnipeg move +AUD$14.97, so some scope for upside here today.
The moves in both Paris and Winnipeg canola were reflected across both nearby and outer months, good news for those forward selling canola.

Strength in US soybeans and corn was also said to have been from a slightly lower than expected sowing pace in this weeks crop progress report. A look at the forecast for N.America and one can see that this week is not likely to offer the producer an opportunity to catch up either. Heavy rain is predicted across much of the US Midwest, the heaviest across the central and eastern corn belt and the major soybean states.
The forecast also shows more falls across southern Alberta and SW Saskatchewan. This area had been exceptionally dry but has seen up until last week, and is expected to see more good falls over the next 7 days.
US corn sowing is just 3pts behind the 5 year average at 36% sown, that’s not enough to be concerned about as yet. Soybeans are actually ahead of the average at 25% sown v the avg at 21%, so again, some rain isn’t a big issues as yet. 43% of the US winter wheat crop is in head, that’s well ahead of the 5 year average which is 32%. The G/E rating for winter wheat improved 1pt this week, up from 49% last week to 50%. Kansas was 32% G/E v 31% LW.