Both Paris rapeseed futures and Winnipeg canola futures were lower overnight. The slightly weaker AUD will help buffer some of the downside, but the losses were significant even when taking the softer AUD into account. Paris rapeseed was back the equivalent of roughly AUD$12.19 and Winnipeg canola was lower by AUD$4.99. Old crop basis to Winnipeg has turned positive, yesterday estimated at +AUD$9.52 to nearby. Paris basis has also improved, it’s still rubbish at $76.17 under, but it’s better than it has been for the last six months. The last time we saw positive basis to Winnipeg was literally years ago.

The US crop progress report out earlier this week didn’t hold too many surprises, good or bad. Sorghum sowing has reached the half way mark. Texas now estimated at 84% sown, Kansas 35%. This is a little ahead of the 5 year average of 46%. Looking at World Ag Weather.com one could assume that this sowing pace may slow as the 7 day rainfall across the sorghum belt has been significant. The rain also getting the US crop in the ground off to a great start.
The US hard red winter wheat crop saw little rain throughout spring. The crop deteriorated with yield estimates, especially across western Kansas, were expected to be well below average. Now we see rainfall across western Kansas and more in the forecast. The US wheat Associate May 31st crop progress report estimated 90% of the HRW crop was then in head with rain delays for those trying to harvest in the far south now common. The Good / Excellent rating for winter wheat in Kansas actually increased 2pts, from 32% to 34% in this weeks USDA report. With continued rain this may be hard to duplicate next week, but late filling tillers may get some help.
Egypt picked up 470kt of milling wheat from a number of suppliers, mostly Black Sea states (350kt) and France (120kt), with values between US$269 to US$284 FOB supplier port. Algeria picked up 800kt of Black Sea milling wheat between US$279 – US$280.
Strategie Grains cut their estimate of EU rapeseed production by 180kt to 17.94mt, 10% below last years production estimate. Water logging the major setback.