Although it is early days yet the US winter wheat crop is shaping up well and currently rated the best we’ve seen since 2019. A quick look at World Ag Weather shows US 14 days rainfall across the major soft red winter wheat regions at 20mm to 70mm. There’s...

Most punters appear to be factoring in a rate rise from the RBA this week. A survey carried out by The Guardian has suggested 34 of 39 analyst are predicting a 25pt move higher to the base rate. I’d like those odds on a horse in the cup. The...

It’s probably more about the weaker US dollar than fundamental grain news this morning. The US jobs data was a little bearish the US dollar. Slower than expected jobs growth in the US, less participation and fewer hours for those working were the key to it all. One headline...

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reduced their estimate for Argentine wheat production yet again. The current estimate is now 15.4mt, back a further 5% on the previous estimate. The Argentine wheat crop has been reduced significantly from pre-sowing estimates due to drought and frosts. Combine this with the...

Russia, they never have an issue with talking their book. Grain corridor deals, export delays, port problems, go slow inspections. According to a Reuters report yesterday Russia’s Ag Minister has proposed a six month ban on durum wheat exports. Russia isn’t a major durum producer, and the main production...

Canadian canola values continue to slide on the back of slower than desired exports. Domestic canola crush in Canada remains good, around 300kt better than the accumulated amount for this time last year. This volume is not enough to counter slower exports though. There was some talk in October...

Generally international grain futures pushed lower overnight. This move lower in futures, combined with a 30pt rally in the Aussie dollar, may present some resistance to better prices here today. Higher grade wheat generally fared better. Paris milling wheat, US HRWW and spring wheat futures all just a touch...

Higher execution costs out of the Danube for Ukraine grain is pushing some Black Sea offers higher. Corn FOB Danube ports has moved about US$5.00 higher over the last week, from about US$155 to US$160 FOB. Danube ports carry an additional cost to execute of roughly US$12.00 compared to...

There’s not a lot of fundamental news in the grains market this morning. Overnight the USDA weekly crop progress report was released. Corn harvest in the states is progressing a little quicker than the five year average, now 59% complete versus the 54% average. Conditions over the last week...

StatsCanada amended their controversial average yield from their last report. The new estimate of just 23.8bu/ac (1.6t/ha) is now in line with most industry estimates. It also means that Canada may well produce a sub 4mt durum crop in 2023. Canadian durum quality has been good though, over half...