US corn, wheat and soybean futures all closed lower overnight. The reason for the sharp move lower was said to have been renewed concerns over the US / China trade deal. With China picking up almost 4mt of soybeans in the last week I’m somewhat sceptical that this market isn’t simply talking its book leading into tonight’s USDA data dump.
Over the last month or more wheat seemed to be most comfortable and competitive at around 500c/bu and each time it has breached this number and moved higher it seems to always finds its way back at some stage (chart attached).

The punters are tipping good news for US corn & soybeans in tonight’s USDA report. Wheat is expected to be less optimistic with increased carryover stocks becoming an issue for the USA. US weekly wheat export shipments have continued to fail to meet USDA projections and that can only mean one thing, well fundamentally at least, rising stocks. Don’t underestimates the punters ability to sell the rumour buy the fact though. At the end of the day unless US wheat sales during the government shut down were much better than the punters expect US wheat prices will come under pressure. Last night’s decline will go a long way to factoring the rising US ending stocks into prices though.
Egypt are in for another wheat tender for late March delivery, results out tomorrow. Egypt supply minister also said strategic wheat reserves are enough to last 3.6 months.