11/2/19

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The USDA data was uninspiring to many. Some interesting points included the lowest sown US winter wheat area in 110 years, now we just need them to produce 110 year old yields off that area to help reduce ending stocks.
The USDA pegged sown winter wheat area in the States at 31.29 million acres. This is roughly 900kacres below the average guess the market had on. The lower 2019 area helped but not by enough to stop values falling in outer month futures. World wheat projected ending stocks fell from 268.1mt in Dec to 267.53mt in Feb. US carry increased from 26.52mt to 27.5mt.
Also helping US wheat futures was the appearance of the USA on the latest Egyptian tender. I appeared along with France and Ukraine, no Russia. GASC the state owned body in charge of wheat procurement for Egypt confirmed they had purchased 120kt of US SRW, 120kt of French wheat and 60kt of Ukraine wheat.
Values offered were, Glencore, 60kt French wheat US$260.05, 60kt French wheat US$261.65, Cargill 120kt US @ US$260. LD picked up the last 60k @ US$261.20 reported Reuters. The above prices were CiF Egypt. At an FOB level US wheat is now close to the cheapest in the world at US$234.47 FOB. CME Platts APW wheat at an FOB Aussie level is indicated at US$285.50, some US$51 higher.

A quick scroll through the latest wheat WASDE shows Aussie production unchanged at 17mt, Russia up from 70mt to 71.6mt, China back about 1mt to 131.43mt.  Total 2018-19 production pegged at 734.75mt, up from 733.41mt in December.

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