27/2/20 Prices

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In the US grain futures were generally a smidge softer in overnight trade. Any move lower will be more than taken up by the weaker AUD which in dollars per tonne terms for wheat accounts for about $2.16 of buffer, wheat only slipped about 70c/t.

The AUD is at 65.53c this morning, an 11 year low. The punters are tipping a blood bath on the local stock exchange during the day. Is that market speak for “let’s get ready for a buying spree”, is it a bear trap to drag out the last of the crushed sellers. Who knows. The corona virus appears to be the catalyst for all of this. If you start getting caught up in the drama of it all the potential numbers become staggering. I was bored late yesterday and done up a simple doomsday spreadsheet for some entertainment, I’ll attach the results.
The property market is all over another interest rate cut, do the banks even pass these on anymore ?

In the US soybeans found some support from news that Argentina will suspend exports sales until the new export taxes are in place. This is expected to make Argentine product less competitive on the world market, thus potentially giving the US a slight advantage now the phase one trade deal with China is in place. Have they forgotten about how cheap Brazilian beans are ?
The analyst appear worried about the punters being long in Paris & Chicago wheat. The consensus is that a quick liquidation of these positions could force wheat values sharply lower quickly. Get ready for the silly season this ones shaping up to be mental.

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