12/1/22 Prices


It was all about wheat last night with a number of global tender and sale announcements, if not physically, psychologically influencing the demand side of the equation.
The flip side, yes there’s always a flip side. Is the possibility that this move higher is simply a bear trap being set in US futures in anticipation of an unfriendly report for wheat in tonight’s WASDE. Time will tell.

International wheat tenders from Algeria, Turkey, Iran and Japan joined confirmation of purchases from China and S.Korea.
S.Korea was said to have picked up 130kt of US corn out of the PNW. Another report confirms 55kt of Aussie feed wheat was purchased by S.Korea. These appear to be two separate tenders from two different buyers.
Comparing the numbers we see US corn out of the PNW was priced at roughly US$309 FOB last night. Freight is roughly US$56 giving a C&F cost at Korea of roughly US$365.
Australian feed wheat, let’s call it SFW1 not ASW for now, but I’ll do the conversion on both. SFW1 is bid at AUD$310 NTL port, Fobbing will run into between AUD$25 and AUD$30 per tonne and frieght to S.Korea will be somewhere around US$35, so about US$90 less than US corn would arrive there for. The ASW premium at the Newcastle port at present is about US$50, still cheaper than what US corn could work into S.Korea for out of the PNW of the US.
These values are encouraging and do tend to help one think the SFW1 market here has more potential upside than downside….