Old crop corn, wheat and soybeans at Chicago were lower overnight. Wheat sharply so. The Aussie dollar is also firmer against the US dollar.
Combining the move in the AUD, -AUD$2.14/t and the move in nearby SRWW futures at Chicago, -AUD$16.98, in theory we have a plausible downside of AUD$19.12. This shouldn’t really be the case reflected here on Monday though as we also have basis at negative US$3.35/bu, that’s pretty big considering we’ve been bitching about negative US$0.90c being too much of late.
So best case scenario, local values rallied about AUD$40 on the back of the Russian / Ukraine war while US futures rallied, at the peak, about AUD$312. Today we see the rally in futures from about the 21st of Feb around AUD$132. So there really is a bunch of buffer built into these local old crop prices.

Major N.African importers have relatively good wheat stocks but even countries like Algeria cannot hold enough wheat to wait this Russian / Ukraine war out and will need to enter the market again at some stage.
Turkey picked up 260kt of milling wheat overnight (some reports say 150kt). Stock is thought to have been tendered from existing supplies already in Turkish stores. The prices are coming in around US$435ish, some US$80 higher than purchases of Ukraine wheat made back in January. There is speculation that Russia wheat may feature as Russia continues to confirm they are selling wheat FOB Novorossiysk port in the Azov Sea.

Late season rains are expected to boost second plant corn production in Brazil. There is also speculation that wheat production will also increase this year given the cost of production and input needs for corn. Philippines said to have picked up another 3 boats of feed wheat, up to 270kt was tendered.