10/5/22 Prices


The USDA weekly crop progress report shows just 22% of the US corn crop is in the ground, the 5 year average is 50% and this time last year the US was at 64% sown. There are huge delays in the “I” states, the main corn states. Iowa for instance is at just 14% sown versus 84% this time last year. The northern and central corn belt is where the big delays are. A quick look at the 14 – 7 day past rainfall will tell you why. Many of these location have seen 50 – 100mm over the last couple of weeks. The forecast isn’t predicting conditions will change dramatically in the next 7 days either, with a large strip of the central corn belt pencilled in to see 25 -50mm in the next 4-7 days.
The wet weather is creating some concern about disease in the winter wheat crop but the wetter areas are yet to see a large number if fields in head. Illinois is pegged at 19% headed. Ohio and Michigan are yet to throw a head up. The winter wheat condition rating improved a little week on week, now 29% G/E, +2%. The P/VP rating also back from 43% to 39%.
Spring wheat sowing pace and emergence is still an issue though. Sowing progress pegged at 27%, some 20% below the 5 year average. In the wet east of the spring wheat belt, Minnesota just is 2% sown. This against a 50% average and 93% sown at the same time last year.
Sorghum sowing in the HRWW states is progressing normally, these states have generally avoided the constant rain to the north east. US sorghum sowing progress is pegged at 22% sown, 4% below the 5 year average.

In France condition ratings were back a little for wheat, the dry weather starting to limit yield potential. Although back a little a rating of 89% G/E isn’t too bad is it. Winter barley was back 1% to 86% G/E. With further dry weather expected this week there appears to be little chance of an improvement.