20/5/22 Prices


Chicago wheat futures continue to slip away from the high set on Tuesday. What a week wheat has had at Chicago, covering a range of 126c/bu since this time last week, almost AUD$66 per tonne at today’s exchange rate.
One futures contract consists of 5000bu, 136 tonnes, so if you were to pick the high on Tuesday and the low last night you could have picked up 90.5c/bu or about AUD$47.00 per tonne on 136 tonnes = AUD$6,392 per contract. Last night the volume of trade on the July 22 SRWW contract was 164,811 contracts, 22.41mt. I wonder how many of those traders pulled that off.

Back in the real world. US wheat at these values is seeing some real headwind. US weekly old crop wheat sales set a marketing year low of just 8,500 tonnes net. This is some 40% lower than the previous week. New crop sales were much better, coming in at 325,600 tonnes.
Weekly US soybean sales were on the upside at 752.7kt, China again the top buyer. The data did help reverse the current momentum in Chicago soybean futures but there was continued downside in new crop Paris and Winnipeg canola.
New crop canola averaged an ex-farm bid of C$1009.18 per tonne for a Dec 22 pickup out of SE Saskatchewan, a day to day decline of C$20.66. Cash bids for spring wheat ex farm Nov22 also fell in SE Sask, slipping C$11.89 on the day to C$556.74 per tonne. Durum was a smidge softer, sustaining just a C$2.00 spread to spring milling wheat there.
Kansas wheat tour data on Twitter is interesting. Final estimate came in at 7.1mt, about 275kt under the current USDA estimate for Kansas. This estimate is likely to fall rather than rise according to some participants. Abandonment in the west likely to increase. Go to kswheat.com/news/ to have look.