US soybean futures were the big loser overnight, shedding over 30c/bu across the board through to the Jan23 contract. Internally the US domestic cash market pre-empted the move, local basis there generally falling early in the day, this was a little regional specific though, those areas that are still a little wet actually seeing a slight uptick in basis.
Saskatchewan and Alberta are forecast to finally see some decent rain across the southern and western districts over the next 7 days. This rain is likely to benefit canola more than durum at this stage. This may have explained the sharp loss in Winnipeg canola futures, that, and the spill over weakness in Chicago soybeans. Winnipeg slipped over AUD$18. The weaker AUD/CAD conversions could buffer around half that decline if reflected today.
The USDA weekly crop progress report out after the close showed corn at 97% sown, bang on the 5-year average and higher than the average trade guess prior to the report. The good to excellent rating for corn was back 1% week on week but at 72% G/E it’s in good shape. Soybean progress and condition closely reflect that of corn.
The hard red winter wheat harvest is progressing slowly, showers & storms continue to interrupt progress. More tornadoes being reported late last week around central north Kansas. Texas is 53% harvested, Oklahoma 32%, both close to the average pace. Kansas is just 2% harvest (4%avg). The G/E rating improved 1%, to 31%, that’s not worth writing home about, especially when the P/VP rating increased 2% to 42%.
Spring wheat sowing was pegged at 94%, that’s higher than the average trade guess prior and may pressure bids overnight. We also get a look at the condition rating of the spring wheat crop for the first time, 51% G/E and just 9% P/VP, a few hot weeks may see the improve in the east.