Talk of severe thunderstorms leaving up to 14″ of rain in some parts of the central corn belt has done little to support US corn futures, which again slipped lower. Nearby corn, wheat and soybean futures all continued lower, closing with double digit declines.
Winnipeg canola was back on board after a public holiday on Monday and it played catch up shedding C$44.40 on the nearby contract. Across the Atlantic the Paris rapeseed contract found some support and managed to close in the green after a sharp decline on Monday triggered some bargain hunting. The Feb23 contract at Paris was AUD$8.08 higher by the close.

The first grain vessel to leave Odesa has made it to safe waters and will soon be inspected at Turkey. This paves the way for those vessels that have been caught up in this debacle since late February to leave port. Punters are sure we will see an influx of boats into the Black Sea to load Ukrainian grain over the coming weeks. Marine Tracker.com currently shows around 4 large bulk vessels at Odesa and another 5 at Mykolaiv.
After the sharp decline in US wheat values, exports out of the states had benefited a little from the lack of Ukraine export activity. US export volume was nothing like the level the punters had initially expected though, hence the decline from the highs in May / June.
The reality is that the quicker Ukraine can ramp up wheat exports the lower carry-over stocks will be. The ending stocks in the Black Sea will be the biggest hurdle to prices moving through Q4 2022 and into the first quarter of next year. The Russian crop has only gotten bigger as yields appear to be close to record levels in many locations. The only set back so far, some weather damage, now pushing some Russian samples into feed grade.
Also keep an eye on the US white wheat crop in the PNW, there are some delays there that may amount to some quality issues.