2/8/22 Prices

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US soybean futures were hit hard overnight, the Jan23 slot shedding 61.75c/bu, roughly AUD$32.00. The punters call the weather map the key to the decline. A quick look at the weather forecast for the US does have one questioning this reasoning though. Heatwave conditions over the next 7 days for much of the Midwest and rain generally only predicted for east of the Mississippi. Technical selling / profit taking was a key driver in the soybean pit and in the Paris rapeseed market. ICE futures at Winnipeg were unchanged, not trading due to a public holiday in Canada.
Corn and wheat futures were generally caught up in the spill over selling.
Wheat was pressured from reports that a Ukraine wheat vessel departed Odesa for Lebanon yesterday. Speculation persists about the volume of wheat stored at Ukrainian ports and the number of ships willing to load wheat there. Some reports claim up to 16 boats are currently stuck in Ukraine ports and are ready to ship out. Others claim the number is closer to 5. Either way the safe passage of the first of these boats will be crucial to ensure more Ukrainian wheat flows out of the Black Sea in 2022.
Many would argue that the prospect of Ukraine exports of wheat has also been factored into the current wheat price. Longer term one would assume that a sharp increase in nearby exports would be a good thing, reducing the volume of carry-over stocks is still the key to better prices longer term.

The weekly USDA crop progress report was out after the close. Corn 80% silking, avg 85%, G/E unchanged at 61%. As a point of interest, you often hear of two phrases in corn progress, silking and tasselling. Silking is the flower on the cob and tasselling the male flower on the top of the plant. Soybeans were +1% to 60% G/E. Sorghum -2% to just 28% G/E. Spring wheat 97% headed and rated 70% G/E, up 2% and pressuring prices.

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