12/8/22 Prices

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Chicago corn, wheat and soybean futures were all higher. Add new crop Paris rapeseed and ICE canola to the list and we have good chance for some spill over upside here today.  The AUD is still a thorn in our side though, pushing above 71.3c midsession, and closing above 71c for the first time since June 9th. Cash markets for canola across European, the Black Sea and Canadian ports were all higher. The cash market showing more upside than futures for a change and reflecting moves of AUD$15 to AUD$25 higher at some locations.
Good US weekly soybean export volume was a major help to futures, strengthening the oilseed complex.

The futures market is still being predominately driven by punters squaring up prior to tonight’s USDA WASDE report. The recent decline built speculative shorts into grains; those positions now being closed out. This report seems to be shrouded in quite a lot of uncertainty, more than the last couple. US, European and Black Sea crops have all been through a lot this season, much of which was not reflected in last month’s WASDE and some of which is not expected to be expressed in tonight’s. This week’s fall in the G/E rating of wheat, corn and soybeans in the US being just some of the changes we will not see reflected tonight’s report.
US wheat futures found strength from OK’sh weekly export sales, very good US weekly export volume, dry hot weather in Europe, and lower EU production estimates from Strategie Grains.  This was opposite to the 1mt upward revision from the French Ag Ministry, but still indicating a YoY drop of 4.4%. Canadian spring wheat values followed futures higher, the average XF price across SE Sask jumping C$6.26 in December to average a price of C$387.62 per tonne ex farm. SE Sask durum was flat, for a December lift 1CWAD13 durum is now +C$58.56 to wheat.

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