4/7/23 Prices

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The only green on the board this morning is again in the oilseeds. Chicago soybean futures managed to keep the momentum going and closed 24.75c/bu (AUD$13.63) higher in the Sept 23 slot, and again lending a hand to Paris rapeseed. The Winnipeg market was closed due to the Canada Day holiday. Paris closed in the green across all months, right out to May 2025. The Feb 24 contract was up E7.50 by the close.

US hard red winter wheat futures fell the least, while SRWW and spring wheat continued to fall. Some might say US values fell against the fundamentals. We will need to see a greater reduction in wheat production in Canada and the US spring wheat belt to have a large enough impact on world production estimates to make a difference, thus an improvement in values out of the other major exporters like the Black Sea and Australia is currently not expected.
Black Sea values remain very much the cheapest wheat in the world, even into much of the Asian market.
Over the mid-term white wheat values out of the US Pacific Northwest have fallen. Asian buyers are now able to price from multiple locations at similar values again. This may result in continued pressure for Australian values from the west coast and into the new crop year.

Algeria has issued a tender for durum. The tender delivery period is August / September this year so we should see offers from France, Mexico, and Canada. The punters are tipping that Mexico will be hard to beat. Algeria do not make public their purchase volume or value post tender, they simply call for offers on 50kt and then buy just that, or many multiples of 50kt.
Overnight French durum values were sharply lower, back around AUD$20 but remains some of the more expensive durum in the world.

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