I was reading about Saudi Arabia buying 1.353mt of wheat just prior to retiring last night. I said to myself, ” self, that’s got to be bullish wheat, it’s double what they said they were going to buy”. So yeah, Chicago wheat futures fell again last night, Paris milling wheat was higher, gaining E1.25/t in the nearby slot.
I’m starting to wonder what kind of news the wheat market actually needs to rally it. Apparently it going to have to come from the production side. Recent Algerian, Egyptian, Saudi Arabian and Chinese business has had a little short term, or literally no impact, on values.
Granted, yes, the rest of the world is basically broke and may struggle to handle higher food prices, that is a major consideration. Which tends to make me wonder even if there is a major northern hemisphere production issue in 2024, just how high could the market rally before it creates enough consumer resistance to counter the drop in supply.
We also have an Argentine peso worth half of what it was a week ago. It’s hard to determine the mid term affect of that. It may depend a lot on their internal inflation rate as to it’s local a benefit. Will their local wheat simply go up to the same value in US dollars or will it actually result in cheaper wheat locally and thus internationally. Looking at Russia, when the Rubble collapsed local farmers were seeing many rubles per tonne, but higher input costs

Paris rapeseed futures and Winnipeg canola both closed in the green. The move at Paris, when taking fluctuations in the AUD / Euro into account, is roughly equivalent to +AUD$4.34. Indian chickpea values at the Delhi market were once again lower, chart attached. White wheat values out of the US Pacific Northwest remained unchanged, not following values for both spring wheat and hard red winter wheat lower.