Weakness in US soybean futures at Chicago weighed on the market. Beans slipped 14.75c/bu (AUD$8.31) on the nearby contract. This didn’t help corn or wheat. Wheat futures did fare a little better, gaining back some ground in the premium grades while soft red winter wheat futures were a smidge lower by the close.
The weaker soybean market did roll through to additional pressure on canola and rapeseed futures. Paris rapeseed was E6.50 lower nearby, Winnipeg was also sharply lower, shedding C$9.10 nearby. Cash bids for canola ex farm SE Saskatchewan reflected the weakness in Winnipeg futures, shedding C$9.08 for a March lift, the outer months seeing more significant losses.
Durum values out of SE Sask were generally flat, nearby pickup averaged a buy price of C$425.66 according to PDQ. New crop 1CWAD13 values were also flat, averaging a price of C$364.54 for an August lift. On the back of an envelope the new crop number out of SE Sask would roughly translate to about AUD$560 XF LPP using Italy as a consumer, and is a premium of about C$75 to spring wheat for pickup in August XF SE Sask.

The weight on international grain prices is coming from potentially increased wheat ending stocks in Russia and the EU. A relatively benign weather outlook for most of the major grain producers / exporters and a big S.American summer crop. It continues to rain across Brazil, helping late beans compensate somewhat for the poor early crop in Mato Grosso and allowing late corn to reach it’s full potential. Conditions in Argentina are starting to get a little dry on what has been a good run to date for corn and beans. 14 day rainfall across Argentina has been minimal and restricted mainly to the SE of the Pampas.
In Europe conditions have turned a little dry across the southern half of France and for much of Italy. Germany and Poland continue to receive useful falls with eastern Poland at roughly 125% of average rainfall over the last few weeks. Black Sea states are seeing average rainfall, Russia is mixed but still good.