I’m not stating anything new hear, but the whole Trump thing is making it very hard to crystal ball any markets at present. It’s not all to do with tariffs and counter-tariffs, but the importance of these can not be understated.
It has a lot to do with simple accounting, well maybe not so simple. The big “savings” anticipated to be made through government cuts may simply reveal what is already happening. The US is suffering through a serious recession, this has been masked by the accounting of government spending in GDP. Remove some of that spending and GDP falls, converting minor growth to minor losses and bam, the US is in recession and interest rates fall…..maybe.
A similar picture unfolded with Argentina when Milei began carving up government spending. A “true” GDP was revealed before a very solid recovery…. in theory. The reason this is playing on my mind is that a lot of the price of Aussie export grain is made up by the weak Australian dollar. If interest rates fall in the US will the money market take it as confirmation that the US economy is in shamble, as we all know it has been since Covid but the reports have constantly told us differently. If so, what impact will this have on the value of the AUD in the short to mid term, say Q3 – Q4 2025 and into 2026 while we are trying to market the new season wheat and barley crops. It’s often said you don’t need enemies when you have a friend like the USA.
The other policy that concerns me that is yet to be clarified is the authorisation of some import / export partners, not countries, to be tariff free. Is this potentially a control method, a wealth transfer out of the USA, or a concentration of the flow of product and money. Is this the implementation of a 3rd party broker for US product that if acquired in the usual manner would attract a tariff, but using this path does not, just a “fee for service”. So many questions.

I’m not an economist, an accountant, or a US grain exporter / importer. I’m just a very skeptical small time grain broker and market analyst, but sometimes things are not as they seem. As I read a few weeks ago, this season of USA is heaps better than season 8 of Game of Thrones…….