25/2/26 Prices
International grains, cash and futures, were mixed, no huge moves in anything. Chicago soybeans moved higher, up 5.25c/bu on the nearby. This helped sustain improvements on both Paris rapeseed futures and Winnipeg canola futures. Cash values for canola ex farm SE Saskatchewan were also firmer, up CAD$2.14/t on the day.
Canadian durum improved nearby, up country values moved higher, SE Sask bid at CAD$284 nearby and CAD$271 for June. Not exactly what the Aussie durum grower wants to see, outer months bid higher than nearby would be much better to see. With improved conditions in Turkey, Italy and Spain, we may really need to see something negative to production in Canada to get a pulse back in the durum market here.
US cash wheat values out of the Pacific Northwest trended lower, not by much, less than a dollar lower in most grades. A value local basis should be able to absorb. Yesterday local basis improved 10c/bu to Chicago SRWW. To cover the move in US cash values out of the PNW last night, we’d need to see a much smaller improvement in basis here today, very doable.
US wheat futures were lower on the usual lack of issues. The US winter wheat crop is fairing well enough, global stocks are high and demand steady. Nothing appears to be developing to push the wheat price one way or the other at present. If you read the media you may be concerned about the imminent US war with Iran. Iran is a net importer of wheat, the war is probably more bearish wheat than bullish, at least until Iran finds a way to pay for imports. Lots yet to written on that page. Just like the condition of the northern hemisphere wheat crops. There’s a long way to go before we know how the US and Russian crops survived winter, let alone what they may yield come July. The funds continue to push US drought and Russian winter kill to help clear over sold positions, bring it on.