14/4/26 Prices
US wheat closed higher day to day after some late session selling. Chicago soft red winter wheat futures topped out at 589.5c/bu before succumbing to some late session selling after Trump stated that Iran wanted to make a deal. I was reading about the US blocking the Straight of Hormuz yesterday, crazy world we live in. The best meme I saw all day is attached, remember Blazing Saddles. You can’t make this stuff up.
The net result in US futures appeared to be sell beans, buy wheat. Winnipeg canola saw some weakness away from the nearby contracts, but Paris rapeseed futures were higher across old and new crop contracts. The net gain in the conversions for nearby rapeseed futures is roughly +AUD$5.25/t compared to yesterdays conversion. Corn futures looked left saw clowns, looked to the right, saw jokers, and managed to close the session with minimal losses across old and new crop contracts.
International cash wheat values are generally higher. Black Sea values took a lot less notice of the US and European markets. Wheat values there generally trading sideways. US cash HRWW out of the Pacific Northwest was firmer. The day to day conversion comparison showing gains in AUD/t of about AUD$6.81/t. Canadian values out of the PNW followed US values higher, not dollar for dollar, but pretty close. This move places US HRWW at roughly a US$17/t advantage over Aussie H2 wheat into the Asian market. Argentine values have increased over the last few weeks. Aussie milling wheat now cheaper than Argie wheat into the Asian market.
The fact that Aussie wheat is still cheaper than Argie wheat into Asia tells me we have a long way to go here to see a full on domestic drought premium. Local H2 values only being +US$17 C&F Asia to US wheat tells me that the consumers here have only just started to widen their draw arc.
Aussie canola exports for Feb were 883kt, +55% on the same time last year. Europe remains the major buyer, ahead of China who picked up 123.5kt.