I’m no stock market guru but I have enjoyed watching some of the more profitable market positions and the timing of these positions when it comes to the odd US punter over the last few weeks. I’m not saying that the markets are manipulated, or taken advantage of, or that insider trading is rampant in the US market. That’d be terrible to think, dishonest and breaking laws that have been put in place for the benefit of the greater good. But…….. one does raise the odd eyebrow at the timing of some of the trades.
Over the last few weeks we’ve seen funds go from some massive short positions in grain, massively over sold, to long, over bought. The ability of the “technical” side of the market to push prices around as money is “parked” in certain commodities or financials still amazes me after 30 years. On Jan 15th, the May soft red winter wheat futures contract was worth 521.5c/bu, on March 31st, the May contract was worth 616.25c/bu, up 94.75c/bu, or just over 18% on the back of little to no fundamental change in global wheat data. One could actually argue that the data from the last 30 days has been more bearish than bullish. Global wheat stocks remain high, export sales pace from some the major exporters in Jan / Feb had declined, potentially leading to increased ending stocks.
Lucky we have the USDA reporting every month keeping us informed, just as the data becomes obsolete. I probably shouldn’t complain, at least the US has a actual reporting system that monitors and makes public export sales and shipments on a weekly basis.

Last night the US wheat futures market appears to of had a correction, all three grades shedding value. Was this a greater market correction, possibly, corn, soybeans, canola, rapeseed, palm oil, crude oil, many commodities were softer. News that Oracle sacked 30k staff, by email, that’s 1 in 5 staff members world wide, had the greater market watching, NASDAQ +1.16%, they love a good mass sacking.
Tunisia picked up 100kt of soft wheat at US$274.13/t C&F out of the Black Sea. That’s probably a little higher than one may have expected to see.