Winnipeg canola and Paris rapeseed futures rejected the recovery process going on in the Chicago wheat, corn and soybean pits. Instead plotting its own course lower. Winnipeg canola futures shed CAD$8.80/t in the January 2027 slot while Paris rapeseed fell €6.00/t in the February 2027 slot. WTI crude oil and Brent oil were both a little lower overnight.
The main weight on the canola / rapeseed market came from a record plant in Canada. StatsCanada data shows the Canadian farmer has sown a record 23.4 million acres of canola this year. Good prices for canola, easing of Chinese tariffs, and poor wheat prices, all helped farmers make the move to canola. Canadian wheat area fell about 5.9% year on year, down to 25.3 million acres. Durum, which makes up part of that total, fell 10.3% year on year to 5.9 million acres. Canadian farmers reading the international signals indicating poorer demand for durum is likely in 2026-27. Canadian spring wheat area is expected to be back 3.9% year on year to 18.1mac and total winter wheat area is pegged at just 1.4mac, back 11.5% YoY.
Barley and corn area is up, Canadian farmers sowing 6.7 million acres of barley. Chickpea area was back a little to 533kac.

The USDA also reviewed their area estimates, ground under wheat for 2026 is the lowest its been since record keeping started in 1919, falling 6% YoY. The USDA estimate 42.7mac is sown to wheat, 31.5mac of winter wheat, 9.36mac of spring wheat and 1.83mac of durum wheat. This allowed US futures to claw back some of the previous session losses.

Add smaller Canadian and US acres to the list of bullish signals the funds continue to ignore. Maybe not last night, but is wheat really worth as little as it currently is given the lower year on year production estimates from many of the major exporters. The July 10th WASDE may be interesting.