Chicago SRWW wheat July open interest is back roughly 1.9mt on yesterdays close, wheat off 7c/bu. Volume on the day was about 5.8mt. There’s still a bit of work to do by the funds before first notice day for teh July slot, but it does appear to be an orderly shuffle for the door.
What hasn’t been orderly is the shuffle for the door in both the Paris rapeseed contracts and the Winnipeg canola contracts. Both were sharply lower again over night. Paris shedding €26.00/t since last Wednesday. Nearby Winnipeg canola is down CAD$37.50 for the same period. Oilseeds were caught up in the crude oil rally. Now that Trump has bought his way out of the war with Iran (the cost of doing so probably insignificant given the profits made by some during this war) oil has slipped back under US$80/b. This, along with better weather in Canada and the US, has weighed on oilseeds. The lack of significant oilseed purchases from the US / Canada by the Chinese is the other fundamental anchor at present.
Last nights US export sales data for the week ending July 11th for beans were not too bad though. Soybeans came in higher than prior trade estimates for old crop beans, but new crop beans were midway. US weekly wheat sales were 401kt, a little towards the low side of pre-report estimates, but not really surprising anyone given the competitiveness of Russian milling wheat at present.
Rainfall across the Canadian Prairies over the last 7 days was probably a little lighter than some had expected to see. A general 10-25mm should see the spring sown crops off to a good start, but there are still dryish pockets in central Saskatchewan, generally north of the durum belt.
US weekly rainfall has been heavy east of the Mississippi, parts of the central corn belt picked up 60-100mm of rain. Western Kansas remains dry, good for completing the harvest of a poor wheat crop, but not so great for those trying to sow some sorghum. Oklahoma and much of Texas saw some good falls on recently sown sorghum.
France was dry and looks likely to remain dry next week. Germany and Poland should get some nice grain filling rain next week. Russia is still wet.