US wheat futures were a smidge firmer overnight, nothing to write home about, but better than the recent trend lower. If the USDA report another good week of US sales it might just draw US values higher. The US product is cheap, much cheaper than alternatives from the EU, Australia or Argentina.
Argie values have fallen sharply over the last week. Overnight Argentine milling wheat shed roughly AUD$3.93/t compared to Fridays conversion, and comes in at close to US$326 Asian consumer, roughly US$4.00 less than a LPP H2 bid might work into Asia for. This still leaves both Aussie and Argie values more than US$30 higher than US milling wheat on a C&F Asia basis for many buyers.
The conversions tell me that in comparison to local wheat bids further north, LPP system values are too high for export parity and the domestic market, the domestic market maybe winning. With SFW1 bid at $430 delivered Downs, ASW wheat on the track at Gunnedah bid $354 would execute onto a truck at $381, too high to work onto both the delivered market here on the plains, and onto the Downs, and into the export market at current international values.

US weekly wheat export inspections, loadings, were poor, just 75kt for the week up to Oct 29th. This makes sense since the loading are reflecting the period when US wheat values were too high to make good volume sales, like they did last week. In order to keep US values flat to firmer from here, one would think we’d need to see another good US sales number in this weeks report.
US corn is now 74% harvested, cotton is 63% picked, sorghum is 64% harvested and winter wheat is 83% sown. The US new crop winter wheat condition rating, something worth looking at but usually means nothing until April, is at 44% G/E, not fantastic, but not deplorable. The Kansas crop is rated at 47% G/E.
Russia has been reported as likely to target grain export and storage facilities across Ukraine. A more important report is the Russian wheat export pace for October. SovEcon estimating that volume at just 2.9MT, versus 5.4mt for October last year.