2/11/26 Prices

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There were a couple of good news stories about yesterday, they appeared to have more of an impact on the Thursday session in the US than the Friday session last night though.
The first was news (or rumour) that China has shown interest in US soft red winter wheat for 2027 delivery. Not really what one may have expected to hear given their production and ending stocks in the October WASDE were 119.2 million tonnes, against consumption pegged at 149mt and production at 141mt. The USDA do have them penciled in for 6mt of imports. The trade initially             looked at the announcement as potential new business, no one really expects to see a huge volume of wheat imported into China, but with 6mt already on the WASDE paper. The realisation that a mill here and a mill there isn’t going to change that data longer term, settled the matter.
The second titbit was the confirmation that Russia had issued permits for boats in the Azov Sea to leave. The permits for boats to pass though the Kerch Straight and into the Black Sea before Nov 15th, was viewed by some as pointing towards the possible resumption of Russian exports from the Black Sea. I’m not sure about this. What is the insurance costs, are they just relocating vessels that have been locked in since July. Russia continues to state they do not have interest in a cease fire that doesn’t cover more than vessel passage.

The old cliche that “the bulls need feeding every day” rang true, and US wheat futures were generally flat to softer. Cash values out off the US Pacific Northwest realigned with futures. Shedding more value than the equivalent futures move, after gaining more than futures in the previous session.
Argentine milling wheat values have fallen sharply over the last few days. Argie values were not competitive into the Asian market just 7 days ago, now they are on par with LPP values at a C&F Asian consumer equivalent price. US HRWW is still by far the cheapest option for the Asian consumer.

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